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Teens and Pregnancy - A Statistics Lesson

I love statistics. I know to many of you that likely makes me seem a little crazy, but I like working with sets of data. This is part of the reason I am driven crazy by the reporting of statistics we find in the media. What is typically reported is highly agenda driven and only a tiny sliver of the truth.

The headline will be something like this, "Abstinence Education Does Not Work" or "Teen Birth Rates Highest in the South." Though the second headline is factually true, and the first headline is a logical leap, neither of these statements provide a complete picture of what is happening with teenage sexual activity.

A frequently quoted source regarding reproductive statistics is the Guttmacher Institute (www.guttmacher.org). This non-profit is closely associated with Planned Parenthood and likely shares political leanings with that organization. All data in this blog has been taken from the Guttmacher website.

When one looks at the birth rate (live births) among teens aged 15-19, it ranges from 18 (New Hampshire) to 63 (District of Columbia) per 1000 teens. Most news reports ignore that highest number from the District of Columbia and report that the 10 highest states are all in the south. They are as follows, New Mexico (62), Texas (62), Mississippi (61), Arkansas (59), Arizona (58), Tennessee (55), Oklahoma (54), Georgia (53), South Carolina (51), and Alabama (50). This is commonly presented as a failure of funding in more socially conservative regions of the country. Most news reports also include that the lowest teen birth rates are in mostly Northeastern States. You can see the actual rates for all the states below.



Let's compare these numbers with the abortion rates in all of the states. These numbers are rarely reported and they actually present a dramatically different picture. The abortion rate ranges from 6 in Utah to 81 in the District of Columbia. The top ten states for abortion rates (per 1000 teen girls aged 15-19) are as follows, New York (41), New Jersey (36), Nevada (28), Delaware (27), California (26), Connecticut (26), Hawaii (25), Florida (25), Rhode Island (22), and Massachusetts (21). Those rates are obviously lower than birth rates, but 6 of the 10 states are in Northeast and in the District of Columbia, New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut the abortion rate is actually higher than the birth rate. More teen moms in those four regions abort their children than carry them to term. This is also a clear regional difference. The abortion rate data for all states is below.



To get a clearer picture of this data we need to dig just a little bit deeper. If you took the above data on abortion rates and looked at the connection to availability of abortion providers (number of providers in a state) there is a very strong connection. They are statistically correlated at a factor of 0.63, significant at the 0.01 level. This numeric gooblygook says there is a strong relationship between the two. That is a level of correlation that most researchers would be thrilled about and basically suggests an undeniable connection.

Many of you might say, "Duh, if there are a bunch of abortion providers then there are going to be more abortions." True. Many times the data tells us exactly what we might expect. What is interesting is that this strong connection is ignored in all reports about the data. What is reported is the high birth rates in southern states because it seems to fit with a particular agenda. The complete picture is never presented. I think this data raises some interesting questions about cultural values regarding life and particular regional differences. Why do teens in the south seem to have higher birth rates and lower abortion rates? Is it because of a pro-life, religiously influenced value system, or is it just a lack of availability of abortion providers? Do teens in the northeast have higher rates of abortion due to value system issues or are there cultural issues around education and family life that play a role? These questions are still unanswered.

I confess that I have pretty strong conservative political leanings on the abortion issue, and my goal here is not necessarily to add to the abortion debate (I recognize the emotional charge associated with the issue). Rather my goal is to point out the importance of exploring how data is presented. We are only provided a portion of the picture and we have to understand that the presentation of data and statistics in the media is agenda driven no matter what side of the political spectrum. Personally I think the pregnancy rates, though they have dropped are still too high regardless of region and there needs to be a concerted efforts within families and communities to educate our children about healthy sexuality. This data only serves to help remind us that the job of teaching our children is a never done.

 
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